Budget is a blueprint and it needs efficient follow-up and execution, for realizing the ultimate potential. So the aspects such as deficit monetization for long term productive gains (multiplier effect of infrastructure spends), overall capex push (kick starting a multi-year investment cycle) and financial sector clean-up (improving credit growth), should all lead to higher profit pools for the corporate sector. India has so far been largely reliant on consumption demand (both household and government) to drive growth in the absence of the investment cycle. This scenario can drastically change especially the private capex cycle, on the back of the budget push, as well as other conducive factors such as low interest rates, recent labour reforms and PLI schemes. The backdrop is ripe for a 2003-07 kind of investment cycle to play-out, a phase where we saw tremendous addition to India’s corporate profit pool. Now over to efficient execution of this blueprint.
Market movements in the short term are dictated by surprises (both positive and negative to what is already priced in), while the lack of it may mean a range bound performance owing to absence of triggers. Post the budget rally, while we believe that the recovery process will continue to play out, but owing to the heightened consensus expectations, the room for positive surprises could potentially narrow. However, such a scenario presents itself an opportunity by focusing on themes / sectors that can deliver positive surprises in revenue / earnings in the coming year leading to upgrades in consensus estimates. So despite the sharp rally over the past few months, by having a bottom up approach to focus on names that can deliver positive earnings surprises can still provide scope for equity out performance. So we reckon that sectors and companies that can provide positive earnings surprises would continue to do well and should outperform in 2021. So while earnings delivery will still the most important element that we focus on, but within that there is an emphasis on ideas with scope for positive earnings surprises. Our investment strategy will also focus on earnings growth implied by the valuations in the context of prevailing cost of capital and excess liquidity. We would also be mindful of the fact that, the faster than expected vaccine development as well as immunization program has the potential to accelerate the reopening and recovery process. We however remain positively disposed towards companies with relatively higher earnings resilience and ones with stronger balance sheets.
Across our key funds, we hold a positive view on Financial, Health care, Real Estate, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. We are neutral on Technology, Telecoms and Materials. We are negative on Consumer Staples, Energy and Utilities.
For investors with a long term investment horizon, equity investments provide the potential to deliver relatively better returns vis-à-vis other asset classes. Making a case for equities, we would urge investors to approach equity investing from a long term perspective. If we look at India as an economy, it presents a great investment opportunity for the long term. India’s growing middle class and expanding working age population is expected to drive the consumption demand and this is a multi-year story with long legs. Growing disposable incomes would mean burgeoning demand for goods and services, rightly termed as ‘India’s demographic dividend’. Add to this, the capex push envisaged in the current budget, which should revive the investment cycle. So that can lead to both growth engines (consumption and investment), firing simultaneously which has been absent in the past decade. With India being one of the fastest growing large economies, country’s incremental contribution to world GDP will continue to improve, reflecting in the market cap parameters too. We believe that the ingredients are in place viz stable democracy, structural policy reforms undertaken over the past decade (GST, IBC, Corporate tax reform, focus on infrastructure etc.) and the budget gives it an extra push by focusing on reviving the potential medium to long term growth. As result, we believe that Indian equities will continue to be a rewarding place for investors who are willing to stay invested.
Source: Data as at 31 Jan ’21 unless otherwise given.
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