Harsha Upadhyaya heads the equity desk at KMAMC, and also directly manages funds such as Kotak Standard Multicap Fund, Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund and Kotak Tax Saver. Harsha has over two decades of experience spread across equity research and fund management. He has previously worked with DSP BlackRock, UTI Asset Management, Reliance Group and SG Asia Securities. Harsha completed his Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical) from National Institute of Technology, Suratkal and holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Finance) from Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow. He also holds Chartered Financial Analyst charter from the CFA Institute, US. Harsha follows various sports, and was a hockey player while at the university.
Answer :
India has been cordial relations with both the parties in US, so our relationship with US doesn't get impacted with Trump winning. Trump is pro business and wants spendings to move up by cutting taxes. This may lead to increased IT spendings by US corporates which is good for Indian IT. Their is also a possibility of dilution in BASEL III norms which may again spur growth spends and benefit Indian IT. Trump administration may take steps to end Russia- Ukraine war which may result in growth in the European region , which in turn is good for global markets.
Answer : Foreign investors are pulling the money out from emerging markets to deploy in the US market. The hopes of tax rate cut to result in earnings upgrade is one big reason for this massive pullout from emerging market. Once the trade settles, investors shall realize the long term potential for Indian equity market and shall relook at their allocations again. The portfolio allocations at the start of the new year could be one such trigger point.
Answer : Samvat 2081 starts on the back of very strong returns in the market especially from COVID-19 lows. The earnings growth momentum for the next two years is still in double digits . So, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar returns from the market especially the large caps. Though, any cut in earnings for FY25/26 or a multiple derating can result in inferior returns . We are still hopeful of a low double digit return form the current levels post the recent correction in the market .
Answer : IT companies have reported a decent pick up in deal flow especially in small and discretionary projects. Management is seeing a growth recovery in segments like BFSI, Hi-ech and retail. Companies are expecting the margins to stabilize and see an upward bias despite Q3 typically seeing high furloughs.
Answer : The festive season has gone well as per various channel checks. The commentary from various companies is coming positive especially for the rural part of the economy. The urban centric consumption has taken a slight back seat which many are saying that shall pick up as government spending picks up pace. The impending wedding season is also giving hopes for a buoyancy returning to the consumption segment in coming months. We have seen a sharp pickup in the festive season in segments like passenger vehicles , two wheelers and durables. Alcohol companies have also reported brisk sale . Apparel and jewelry companies also reported good sales growth.
Answer : Over the history of Indian equity market, market has corrected by ten percent or more from its peak in almost all the calendar years. So, correction is a part of the overall market movement. One shall not get scared from corrections but may use them as an opportunity to build up portfolios for long term. In our view, if you have a five year or more time horizon in equity market, the best time to invest the money is NOW.