- Risk of Oil prices flaring up: Oil prices have receded sharply and are now below USD80/bbl on slower Chinese/European growth and prospects of more Venezuelan crude coming to the market. We had discussed last period that as an economy our tolerance limit here has improved to over USD100/bbl. Lower than USD80/bbl crude should help improve current account deficit projections.
- Risk of higher US bond yields sustaining for longer: Lower than expected inflation reading caused US bond yields to sharply correct. From close to 5%, 10 year yields have dropped to approximately 4.5%. However, this is a marginal change and while it can cause some amount of short covering led inflows, case for structural FPI inflows is still weak. But domestic flows are proving to be structural. They strengthened in the past period when the market was confronted with several uncertainties, again proving the long term faith in the equity markets.
- Risk of Upcoming Elections: If we look at the performance of the market 6 months before the elections, over the past 8 elections, only once was the returns negative. Similarly, over past 8 elections, only twice were the returns negative six months' post elections. We believe that post Covid, the ability of policy makers to provide protection to Industry is higher as every country wants more manufacturing internally on supply chain issues. Hence a lot of the present supportive policies could be expected to continue.
Motilal Oswal AMC's Investment Philosophy is captured in its self‐coined acronym of QGLP (Quality, Growth, Longevity, and Price).
Quality - Quality of a company is reflected in its ability to deliver superior returns on capital invested while treating stakeholders in a consistently fair way. This ability should be deep‐rooted and hence sustainable. Quality itself can be characterized into two dimensions ‐ Quality of Business and Quality of Management
Growth – Focus on selecting companies, where return on capital employed / return on equity is higher than its Cost of Capital over a cycle.
Longevity – Ensuring longevity of growth by investing in sustainable themes identified by the investment team collectively.
Price - Price of a stock has to be seen in conjunction with the Value it offers. Price is what investors pay, value is what they get. Therefore, stocks are attractive only when they are priced less than the value perceived in them. Pricing can be evaluated by the measures like P/E, PEG, and DCF.
Quality - Quality of a company is reflected in its ability to deliver superior returns on capital invested while treating stakeholders in a consistently fair way. This ability should be deep‐rooted and hence sustainable. Quality itself can be characterized into two dimensions
Quality of Business and Quality of Management.
- Stable business, preferably consumer facing
- Huge business opportunity
- Sustainable competitive advantage
- Management team with integrity and competence
- Healthy financials & ratios